Violent Weather Outbreak Seems Likely Tuesday 16 May 2017

by jmonteverdi

It’s hard to ignore the strong signals arguing for some high end severe storms tomorrow in the southern Great Plains.   The only issue appears to be whether initiation will occur.

The latest run of the NAM has a marked dryline bulge into northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, with strong low-level convergence along it.

NAMSGP_sfc_temp_030.png

You can see the convergence showing up in the wind field from just north of Abilene to the eastern TX Panhandle Tuesday evening around 7PM in the forecast view.  It also shows up in a dryline bulge and marked dew point gradient in the same area.
NAMSGP_sfc_dewp_030.png

Overspreading that area Tuesday afternoon will be southwesterly winds >50 knots providing strong 0-6 km shear.  This in combination with the other ingredients, including mlCAPE values >4000 J/kg has the Significant Tornado ParmeterNAMSGP_500_spd_030.pngNAMSGP_con_3kmehi_030.pngNAMSGP_con_stp_030.png

One weakness is in the lower mid-troposphere winds, that results in the right moving storm being awful close to the hodograph at around 700 mb. Such a storm might produce a tornado early, and then become outflow dominant.  The sounding and hodograph are for a location north of Altus Oklahoma.
2017051518_NAM_030_36.44,-100.07_severe_ml.png

Should be an interesting and potentially dangerous day for storm observers in western Oklahoma.

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